2026 IRONMAN California - Bobby Soler
QT2 Systems
Bobby Soler
2026 IRONMAN California
2026 IRONMAN California: Race Execution Plan
Read This First
This is a guide, not a script. It is not meant to be memorized.
The ranges and cues are here to support your decisions, not to replace them. Conditions on the day and how you feel will shape what good execution looks like. Let them.
Race Purpose
This is your A race, and your return to the full distance.
Success on Sunday is a good, strong day that shows the fitness you have built. Pace the bike well so you can run well. Then run strong the whole way.
That's the whole plan. Everything below is detail.
Trust the Work
You have done the work, and it has been really good.
Look at the evidence. Your big Saturdays this fall stacked up to about 90-109 miles on the bike, with heart rate sitting around 130-140. On Sep 5, in my words at the time, it was a "beautiful heart rate response." You ran well off those rides, again and again. Then you walked almost 40 miles in Colorado and came out with good legs at the end.
That kind of durability is not built in a few weeks. It is built over time, and you built it. Nobody can take it away from you now.
The last few days are for protecting fitness, not building it. If anything is sore, err on the side of caution. A little flat on Sunday morning is far better than carrying soreness to the start line.
Over the next few days, do a little light range-of-motion work. Nothing stressful. Just keep things moving.
The 30,000-Foot Approach
- Get going in the swim and build into it. Settle at 70-80% effort and hold it.
- Ride 185-210 W. Never above 210. Heart rate mostly 130-140.
- Be conservative early on the bike. Early perception can't be trusted.
- Smooth power. No surges on rises, around other riders, or early.
- Fuel the bike at 90-110 g/hr. Pee twice on the bike.
- Start the run at 10:15-10:30 for the first 3-4 miles. Let the legs come around.
- Then run 10:05-10:30. Out to 9:50 only if you are feeling particularly good.
- With 4 miles to go, limits off. Race home.
- Have fun. Take it seriously. Both at once.
The Three Sections
Every distance on Sunday has three overlapping sections. Not two. Three.
Bike
- Miles 0-56: the first half.
- Miles 56-112: the second half.
- Miles 28-84: the middle middle.
Run
- Miles 0-13.1: the first half.
- Miles 13.1-26.2: the second half.
- Miles 6.5-19.5: the middle middle.
The middle middle is where focus quietly drifts. The start is exciting and the finish pulls you home. The middle has neither. Hold your focus across all three sections and you put yourself in a tremendous position to show your fitness.
Your Control System
Perception leads. The numbers are guardrails. On the bike, early on, the guardrails matter more than usual. More on that below.
Bike
- Power: 185-210 W. The whole range is good execution.
- Never above 210 W. If you feel good, move up toward 210. If you don't, move down toward 185.
- Heart rate: mostly 130-140. A check that the effort is costing what it should.
Run
- First 3-4 miles: 10:15-10:30 per mile. Let the legs come around. Force nothing.
- Then: 10:05-10:30 per mile. The whole range is good execution.
- Out to 9:50 only if you are feeling particularly good.
- Heart rate: about 130-140 in the first half.
- With 4 miles to go (around mile 22), limits off. Race home.
These are wide on purpose. The slow end is never failure. It is a tool. Use it when the day asks for it.
The numbers on your TrainingPeaks race-day cards are there for carb math. For pacing and fueling on Sunday, use this plan.
Why the Early Bike Needs Guardrails
You are a strong guy. That is the good news, and it is also the trap.
Early in the bike, big watts will feel easy. They are not free. They cost you aerobically over time, and you will not feel the bill until later in the day. That is why early perception can't be trusted on Sunday. This is not about losing your head. It is just strength.
Average power vs NP. Look at your outdoor rides this fall. Your average power sat around 190-225 W, but your NP was about 25-40 watts higher. That gap is the surges: pushing over rises, accelerating out of turns, putting the hammer down when the road opened up. NP is closer to what the ride actually cost you. On Sunday, keep that gap small. Smooth, steady power, and your average and NP should sit close together inside 185-210.
Flat is relentless. This course is flat, and flat is not free. There are almost no descents to coast down, almost no zeros, and very little free speed. You pedal the whole way. So numbers that feel low still add up to the same total work. 185-210 W, held for 112 miles with almost no breaks, is a big day.
So be conservative early. A little early flatness on the bike is acceptable. It protects you from the big early mistakes, and those are the ones that cost you on the run. If you have to err, err conservative.
Slow to Get Rolling
You are sometimes slow to get rolling, and you get better as you go. That is a good sign.
So start average and build, rather than start great and fade. If you feel flat early on race day, that is usually a sign of fitness after a taper, not a lack of it. Give yourself time to build in. Don't react to it.
Low-Key, Serious Effort
You take this seriously and you want your best. You also have fun out there, and you joke with the people around you. Keep both. They work together.
Judge your day against your own fitness, not anyone else's. People will go hard around you on the bike. Let them. Their race is not your race.
Fueling and Hydration
Keep it simple.
Bike: about 90-110 g of carbohydrate per hour. Consistency over precision.
Pee twice on the bike. Drink so that happens. That sets you up for a strong run.
Run: 55-65 g/hr.
Know what is on course. The PH 1000 (Precision Fuel & Hydration) handed out at aid stations looks like a sports drink, but it is an electrolyte drink with essentially no carbs. It counts toward your fluid and sodium, not your carbs. The Maurten on course is Gel 100 (25 g of carbs each) and Solid 160 (40 g per pack). The gels have very little sodium.
Dry Heat
The current forecast for Sunday is about 62°F at the 7 AM start, the mid-70s by midday, and around 80-83°F during the run. Humidity is low, about 20-27%. Wind picks up to around 10-12 mph later in the day. Forecasts change, so check again Saturday.
Dry air takes your sweat away almost as fast as you make it. You will not feel soaked, so you will not get the usual "wet" reminder to drink.
You own your drinking. Be diligent about it all day, and let the pee count tell you how you are doing.
On the run, use ice and sponges if they are there. Heart rate may drift up a little in the heat. That is expected, not alarming.
Caffeine
Caffeine is a buoy for perceived exertion.
Hold it until you feel you need it. Not early. The swim and early bike bring plenty of stimulus, and early on you do not need anything lowering perceived effort. Remember, early perception is already telling you things are easier than they are.
Use it when your perceived effort starts rising relative to what you are actually doing. That is the job: bring perception back down to where the effort really is. It takes about 20-25 minutes to kick in, so take it a little ahead of when you expect to want the lift.
Same rule on the run.
On course, Gel 100 CAF and Solid 160 C contain caffeine, and the run stations have cola. Know which one you are grabbing.
Race Week and Race Morning
- Get in the water before race day if you can. The guide lists an official practice swim on Friday, October 16, 10 AM to 1 PM at Tiscornia Park (check in before noon; wristband and chip required). Confirm it is on, and go. Swim the American River or the official practice, not the Sacramento River on your own.
- Bike check-in is Saturday, October 17. Bike shoes and helmet go in the blue bike gear bag. Shoes are not pre-clipped.
- Race morning: transition and personal-needs drop are 4:30 to 6:30 AM. The athlete-only shuttles to the swim start run 5 to 6:30 AM. Go early and leave yourself a buffer.
- The wetsuit call is made on race morning. Be ready for it.
Swim
Rolling start from Township 9 Park, downstream on the American River into the Sacramento River, past I Street Bridge, to an exit on the west bank north of Tower Bridge.
Seed yourself where you can start without fighting for space.
Get going and build into it. Don't go out hard. Settle at about 70-80% effort and hold it steady.
The current makes this swim fast at a low cost. A big effort gains you very little here. Keep the swim cheap and save it for later.
Watch where the river joins and sight deliberately. Stay inside the marked course. Spot the exit early, stand when it is safe, and move to transition calmly.
Cue: Build in. 70-80%. Keep it cheap.
T1
Shoes and helmet from the bag. Safe mount. Settle your breathing in the first few minutes on the bike.
Bike - 30,000-Foot Approach
Two laps of about 56 miles, 112 miles total, 710 feet of stated gain. Flat, but not free. You will be pedaling the whole way.
Ride 185-210 W. Never above 210. Heart rate mostly 130-140. Feel good, move toward 210. Not good, move toward 185.
Smooth power. No surges on rises, around other riders, or early in the ride. When people go hard around you, let them. Twelve meters of space, finish passes within 25 seconds, and drop back out of the zone when you are passed.
You do not need to stay locked in aero for the whole ride. It is fine to come out of aero now and then, change muscles, and reset your head.
Lap one is not a test. Lap two is not automatic permission.
Rust-Shaking Protocol (Available, Not Required)
It is here if you need it. If the legs come out of the water ready, skip it.
Flat early bike legs do not mean the race is gone. After a controlled taper, assume rust first, not fatigue.
Use this only when your race output feels unusually hard and your perceived effort is way out of proportion. Wait until you are clear of the opening turns and traffic.
- Assume rust. Do not force your race watts just because they are on the plan. Forcing them when perceived effort is already spiked usually makes things worse.
- Shake it loose. Do several ~30-second sharp, purposeful accelerations. Not all-out sprints. Full, controlled recovery between them. Think "AED for the legs." You can include lower-cadence jolts. Recover and reassess. Repeat a small round if needed. There is no power limit on these when you use them for this. The 210 W ceiling is for racing, not for Rust-Shaking.
- Reassess. If the legs come in, return progressively to normal race execution. Do not try to repay the opening minutes by over-riding.
- Under-ride if still flat. If the legs stay flat after the pops, ride below your range for a stretch and let the effort come to life.
Unusually high heart rate, real breathlessness, pain or dizziness are not rust. Respect those.
Cue: Flat early is not flat all day. Find the bike before you race the bike.
Riverfront, Mill, Village Parkway and Gregory
Turns, traffic, and a heart rate still coming down from the swim. Ride clean. Settle your cadence and breathing, and start your fueling once you are riding safely.
Babel Slough and Jefferson (CA-84)
Open road. This is where the legs will tell you 220 feels like nothing. Don't believe them yet. Settle into 185-210 W in a position you know, get the fueling rhythm going and start drinking.
Courtland, Ryer and Holland
Quieter rural roads, with turns and possible exposure. Eat and drink before the busier handling bits, when it is safe. Quiet roads are where intake gets forgotten.
Miner Slough Bridge and the Southern Turnaround
Control your line, gear and speed. Come out of aero if you need to. Ease before the turn and accelerate smoothly out of it. No surges.
The Return
Wind may have changed. Let speed be what it is. Stay in your range, stay smooth, keep feeding.
Ballpark and Riverfront, About Mile 56
Halfway on the bike. Confirm the lap-two route. Check in: fueling on track? First pee done? Heart rate and effort where they should be? Body comfortable in position? If yes, keep riding your race.
Lap Two
The middle middle runs right through here. The wind may be up more on this lap. The same watts may start to cost more. If the cost rises, use the lower end of the range. Low heart rate on its own is not a reason to push harder, and 210 is still the ceiling.
Keep eating, keep drinking. The second pee belongs on the bike.
Back to Transition
The last miles are still the bike. Keep control, keep feeding, and do not sprint home.
T2
Arrive with:
- Legs that can run
- Energy aboard and a settled stomach
- Body temperature under control
- Clear thinking
- A smile, if you can manage one
Run - 30,000-Foot Approach
Two laps, 26.2 miles, 394 feet of stated gain. The laps are different shapes, so do not think of it as two equal halves. Follow the signs for your lap, not the runners around you.
First 3-4 miles at 10:15-10:30. Let the legs come around and force nothing. Then settle into 10:05-10:30. If you are feeling particularly good, you can go out to 9:50. Heart rate about 130-140 in the first half.
The goal is a strong run throughout. You get that by being patient early.
T2 and the Southern Excursion (Lap One Only)
Fresh legs off the bike make early pace feel cheap. Stay at 10:15-10:30. Get your fueling rhythm going.
West River and Levee, North
A long corridor that can get quiet. Run aid to aid. Fuel, drink, cool.
Tower Bridge and the East-Side River Trail
Crowds, a bridge and turns. Keep the effort steady through all of it. Settle back into rhythm after each one.
First Capitol Mall Visit, Around Mile 14
The finish area energy will be loud. This is not the finish. Turn, head back, and keep doing your thing.
Lap Two Start, Around Mile 16
Back on the west side. No southern excursion this time. Check in: mechanics, fueling, stomach, heat, head. If they are intact and you are feeling particularly good, this is where 9:50 can come into play. 9:50 is still the top until 4 miles to go.
Lap Two North and East
The miles where patience pays. Keep running your rhythm. Other people will be coming back to you. You do not need to do anything special about it.
Let It Loose: The Last 4 Miles (Around Mile 22)
With 4 miles to go, the limits come off. No ranges, no ceilings. Race home.
You have been patient all day for exactly this. Go get it.
The Final City Miles and Capitol Mall
Make the final turn to the finish on the right lap, and take it home.
Strategic Walking
A few walking steps through an aid station to get fuel, fluid or ice in is a tool, not a failure. Use it when it helps, then get back to running.
Three Moments to Rehearse
You have already seen these. Here are the short versions. Read them this week, picture them, and know what you will do.
Forgotten Fuel or Electrolytes at Race Start
The moment: You reach into your gear bag or your bento box, and it hits you. Something is missing. Gels, electrolytes, a bottle still in the car. There is no getting it back.
Anchor: "This is not ideal, but it's not unrecoverable. Plenty of athletes race strong without perfection. I can adapt."
What you do:
- Stop. Breathe. Don't rush into action.
- Name exactly what is missing.
- Ask: what can I replace at the venue or from someone else?
- Adjust: lean more on the aid stations, use more of the on-course drink, space your intake differently.
- Commit to the new plan calmly.
- Let the old plan go. The new one is active.
"I don't need everything to go right. I need to go forward." A calm head is a better asset than any bottle.
Missed Bottle at an Aid Station
The moment: You reach for the bottle and it is gone. Dropped, missed, or never handed out. The next station is miles away.
Anchor: "Missing one bottle won't ruin my race. How I respond might. I prepared for this. I have options."
What you do:
- Sit up and take 2-3 deep breaths.
- Take stock of what you still have.
- Look ahead to the next aid station.
- Adjust your next sips and fuel windows to stretch what you have.
- Do not surge to get there sooner.
"I adapt. One bottle doesn't define this day." Back in formation. Onward.
Cramping Begins Mid-Race
The moment: The unmistakable twitch. An early warning in your calf, hamstring or quad. Not a full cramp yet, but threatening. You still have miles to go.
Anchor: "This is a signal, not a sentence. I still have time to respond, if I do it calmly."
What you do:
- Back off effort. Not dramatically, just enough to reduce tension.
- Breathe deeper, especially through the cramp-prone area.
- Adjust form. Hamstring: shorten stride. Calf: heel contact and soft turnover. Quad: upright torso and stable core.
- Take in targeted electrolytes, if available.
- Keep moving. A gentle pace is better than standing still.
A cramp is feedback, not failure. Listen. Adapt. Hold formation.
If a cramp comes with chest pain, confusion, severe dizziness, or anything that feels wrong in a different way, it is not a cramp to manage. Stop and get on-course medical help.
If Things Go Sideways
Notice it. Stabilize. Fix the one thing. Reassess.
- Stomach goes sour: back off the intensity some, simplify intake, then rebuild.
- High heart rate for the watts or pace: ease off, drink, cool, then reassess.
- Headwind or gusts: ease if needed, hold a safe position, wait for a calm moment to reach for bottles. Let speed change.
- Missed aid station or bag: use what you carry and the next station. No big catch-up feed.
- Not sure which lap you are on: follow the official lap signs, or ask a marshal. Do not follow other runners.
- Slow swim, penalty, mechanical: solve it and go back to your plan. Never try to win back lost time.
Chest pain, collapse, confusion, or being unable to keep your balance: stop and get on-course medical help. That is not something to push through.
Quick-Reference Race Card
- A guide, not a script. Have fun. Be patient.
- Swim: build in, settle at 70-80%, keep it cheap.
- Bike: 185-210 W. Never above 210.
- HR mostly 130-140.
- Early bike: big watts feel easy. They aren't. Be conservative.
- Keep average and NP close. Smooth, no surges.
- Flat course: no coasting, no free speed. It adds up.
- Rust-Shaking if needed: no power limit while you do it.
- Bike fuel: 90-110 g/hr. Pee twice.
- PH 1000 = electrolytes, essentially no carbs. Maurten gels = low sodium.
- Dry air: no sweat cue to drink. You own your drinking.
- Caffeine is a buoy. Hold it until perceived effort rises.
- Run: 10:15-10:30 for 3-4 miles, then 10:05-10:30.
- 9:50 only if feeling particularly good.
- 4 miles to go (around mile 22): limits off. Race home.
- Run HR about 130-140 first half.
- Run fuel: 55-65 g/hr.
- Walking steps through aid: a tool, not a failure.
- First Capitol Mall visit is not the finish.
- The real threats: the gut and overpacing.
Finish
Have fun out there. Be patient. Build into the day.
You did the work. The numbers you have put up are impressive, and you built a level of durability I honestly didn't think was possible with a schedule as demanding as yours. You did it over a long time, and that gives you a long runway.
Remember our early conversation about retirement savings. You don't get rich from one big deposit. You get there from consistent deposits, month after month, compounding into a big account. That is exactly what your training has been. The account is full now, and nobody can take that fitness away from you.
The only real threats on Sunday are the gut and overpacing. Take care of those two, and you are in a great spot.
Enjoy it. Joke with the people around you. Then go show what that account is worth.