Ross Stern Leadville MTB100 Race Pacing Plan

QT2 Systems • 2026 Leadville MTB100

Ross Stern

Your goal is not to ride the first half as fast as possible. Your goal is to arrive at the decisive parts of the race with enough physiological and muscular reserve to keep producing useful power late.

Sea-Level Critical Power

289 W

Sea-Level Threshold HR

163 bpm

Primary Race Rule

Protect 163

Race Strategy at a Glance

Leadville rewards restraint early, discipline on Columbine, and durability late. Your power targets will be lower than your sea-level numbers because of altitude. Your heart rate becomes increasingly important as elevation rises.

Conserve early. Control Columbine. Race progressively harder late.

Your Altitude-Adjusted Power Framework

Your 289 W Critical Power was established near sea level. At Leadville altitude, the external power you can sustain at the same physiological strain will be lower. These are planning ranges, not laboratory measurements.

Below 10,000 ft Planning CP: ~240 W

10,000–11,000 ft Planning CP: ~235 W

11,000–12,000 ft Planning CP: ~225–230 W

Above 12,000 ft Planning CP: ~220 W

Important: Do not chase sea-level wattage at altitude. If your heart rate and breathing say the effort is too high, they win.

The 163 Rule

Your sea-level threshold heart rate is 163 bpm. Treat that number as a guardrail for almost the entire race, especially at altitude.

Below 160: ride. 160–162: manage. 163+: back off immediately.

Section-by-Section Pacing Plan

1. Start → Carter Summit / St. Kevin’s

Approx. 0–10.6 mi

Power

185–200 W climbing

Heart Rate

140–150 bpm

Ceiling

~153 bpm

Your job: Protect the race.

Let people go.
Do not turn early-race adrenaline into repeated hard surges.
If 190 W produces 147 bpm and feels easy, that is exactly what you want.

2. Carter Summit → Outward Bound

Approx. 10.6–22.3 mi

Power

160–190 W when pedaling

Heart Rate

130–140 bpm

Priority

Recover while moving fast

Use gravity, momentum, and other riders.
Do not chase average power.
Eat and drink while the terrain allows it.

3. Outward Bound → Twin Lakes

Approx. 22.3–38.2 mi

Flats / Rollers

175–195 W

Longer Rises

195–210 W

Heart Rate

135–148 bpm

Sit in useful groups whenever possible.
Do not volunteer to do unnecessary work on the front.
This section should still feel very controlled.

4. Twin Lakes → Base of Columbine

Approx. 38.2–44 mi

Power

180–200 W

Heart Rate

140–150 bpm

Priority

Prepare to climb

Fuel before the real climbing begins.
Do not enter Columbine already carrying a large cardiovascular load.
You should still feel like you have a lot of race left.

5. Columbine

Approx. 44–50+ mi

This is the section where heart rate begins to take priority over power.

Lower Columbine

Power

195–205 W

Heart Rate

148–155 bpm

Control

Power still useful

If power and HR agree, use both. If HR climbs disproportionately, reduce power.

Middle Columbine

Power

190–200 W

Heart Rate

152–158 bpm

Control

HR gains authority

Do not force a wattage target simply because it looked reasonable at lower elevation.

Upper Columbine

Power

Whatever HR allows

Heart Rate

155–160 bpm

Hard Guardrail

163 bpm

If 185 W produces 160 bpm, then 185 W is the correct power.

160–162 bpm means manage carefully.
At 163 bpm, reduce effort immediately.
Do not surge over the top simply because the summit is close.

6. Columbine → Twin Lakes Inbound

Approx. 50–61.2 mi

Power

Terrain dictated

Heart Rate

Get back into 130s–low 140s

Priority

Recover aggressively

Descend cleanly and safely.
Fuel as soon as technically practical.
This is a physiological reset.

7. Twin Lakes Inbound → Outward Bound

Approx. 61.2–77.1 mi

Steady Power

180–200 W

Rises

195–210 W

Heart Rate

140–150 bpm

Start allowing a little more expenditure, but stay patient.
If you feel great, that is good news—not permission to attack yet.
Continue using groups intelligently.

8. Outward Bound → Carter Summit

Approx. 77.1–88.8 mi

Start

195–205 W

If Strong

205–220 W

Heart Rate

145–157 bpm

This is where you begin spending what you saved earlier.
If HR remains controlled and you are fueling well, progressively increase effort.
Late in the section, 158–160 bpm is acceptable if you still feel in control.

9. Carter Summit → Finish

Final section

Early

200–215 W

Later

210–225 W+

Heart Rate

150–160+ bpm

Progressively remove the governor.
Do not make one huge effort too early in the final section.
When the remaining race duration is truly short, race the bike.

Late-Race Decision Tree

Use this after Twin Lakes inbound and especially after Outward Bound inbound.

You feel great Increase power gradually, not all at once. Start racing more assertively after Outward Bound and save your biggest effort for the final section.

You feel normal Stay inside the plan. Keep HR controlled, keep fueling, and let the race come to you.

You are struggling Reduce power first. Protect fueling and hydration. Keep HR below threshold and stabilize before trying to regain pace.

Quick-Reference Race Card

Screenshot this section for race morning.

Section	Power	HR	Execution Cue
Start → Carter	185–200 W	140–150	Protect the race.
Carter → Outward Bound	160–190 W	130–140	Recover while moving.
Outward Bound → Twin Lakes	175–195 W; rises 195–210	135–148	Use groups. Stay economical.
Twin Lakes → Columbine	180–200 W	140–150	Fuel before climbing.
Lower Columbine	195–205 W	148–155	Power + HR.
Middle Columbine	190–200 W	152–158	HR gains authority.
Upper Columbine	Whatever HR allows	155–160	163 = back off.
Columbine → Twin Lakes	Terrain dictated	130s–low 140s	Recover and fuel.
Twin Lakes → Outward Bound	180–200 W; rises 195–210	140–150	Patiently start spending.
Outward Bound → Carter	195–220 W	145–157	Begin racing.
Carter → Finish	200–225 W+	150–160+	Progressively remove the governor.

Your race-wide reminder: do not chase sea-level wattage at altitude. Protect 163 until the race is truly short.