Jeff Schleppy Leadville MTB100 Race Pacing Plan
QT2 Systems • 2026 Leadville MTB100

Jeff Schleppy

Your strength is experience. Your risk is using that experience to justify riding harder than your current bike-specific durability can support. Use your course knowledge to be efficient, not aggressive.

Threshold HR
160 bpm
St. Kevyn's Recon
220 W / 135 bpm
Expected Race Duration
8:00–8:45

Race Strategy at a Glance

You know this course very well and have raced Leadville several times. That is an advantage. But your current bike-specific training load is modest, so this race needs to be paced around durability preservation more than around what you remember being able to do in stronger cycling shape.

Use your experience to execute the course—not to justify early aggression.

Your Best Current Pacing Anchor

We do not have a trustworthy Critical Power setting, so we are not going to invent one. Your recent St. Kevyn's recon is more useful: approximately 220 W at 135 bpm and RPE 6.5 while thinking about whether you could sustain race effort for another 90 miles.

Recon Power220 W
Recon HR135 bpm
Recon RPE6.5 / 10
Threshold HR160 bpm

Interpretation: 220 W is a useful upper reference for an opening climb when fresh. It is not an all-day target.

Your Control System

Because your current bike durability is the question mark, your race should be governed by heart rate, RPE, and the St. Kevyn's field anchor together.

Early race: HR 130–138, RPE 5–6. Mid-race climbing: HR 138–146, RPE 6–7. 150+: use selectively. 160: not a race target.

If your HR is low but your legs are beginning to feel loaded, trust the legs. Your likely limiter is bike-specific muscular durability, not your aerobic engine.

Section-by-Section Pacing Plan

1. Start → Carter Summit / St. Kevyn's
Approx. 0–10.6 mi
Power
200–210 W
Heart Rate
130–136 bpm
RPE
5–6 / 10

Your job: Be deliberately underwhelming.

  • You already know 220 W / 135 bpm feels reasonable here. Race day is not the time to prove it again.
  • Cap the climb below recon effort and let other riders go.
  • If you arrive at Carter thinking “that was too easy,” you did it correctly.
Fuel cue: Start fueling immediately. Do not wait for the race to feel hard.
2. Carter Summit → Outward Bound
Approx. 10.6–22.3 mi
Power
Terrain dictated
Heart Rate
120s–low 130s
Priority
Use skill for free speed
  • Use course knowledge to save energy and time.
  • Stay smooth, carry momentum, and avoid unnecessary braking and re-acceleration.
  • Do not chase average power.
Fuel cue: Eat and drink while the terrain allows it.
3. Outward Bound → Twin Lakes
Approx. 22.3–38.2 mi
Steady Power
170–195 W
Short Rises
195–210 W
Heart Rate
128–138 bpm
  • Use groups and terrain knowledge to move quickly without spending heavily.
  • If a wheel requires repeated hard accelerations, let it go.
  • The best version of this section feels smooth, not heroic.
Fuel cue: Keep the schedule. Your late-race legs depend on what you take in now.
4. Twin Lakes → Base of Columbine
Approx. 38.2–44 mi
Power
175–195 W
Heart Rate
132–140 bpm
RPE
~6 / 10
  • Prepare to climb; do not pre-race the climb.
  • Fuel before the terrain becomes more demanding.
  • Begin Columbine with the legs still feeling mechanically good.
Fuel cue: Take calories before Columbine becomes the only thing you are thinking about.
5. Columbine
Primary controlled expenditure

Here, HR and RPE become more important than chasing a specific wattage.

Lower Columbine

Power
190–205 W
Heart Rate
138–144 bpm
RPE
6–6.5 / 10

Settle in. Do not allow race position to dictate effort.

Middle Columbine

Power
185–200 W
Heart Rate
142–147 bpm
RPE
6.5–7 / 10

If power begins to cost noticeably more HR or leg tension, let power fall.

Upper Columbine / Goat Path

Power
Whatever HR/RPE allows
Heart Rate
145–150 bpm
Warning Zone
152+ bpm

Do not turn upper Columbine into a threshold effort just because you know exactly how much farther it is.

  • 150 bpm is already meaningful work.
  • 152–155 means you are writing a larger check; use only if there is a clear reason.
  • 160 is not where you should be riding a long climb in this race.
  • Walk where walking is efficient.
Fuel cue: Continue taking calories whenever terrain allows.
6. Columbine → Twin Lakes Inbound
Approx. 50–61.2 mi
Power
Terrain dictated
Heart Rate
Let it fall into 130s
Priority
Recover without losing momentum
  • Use your course knowledge for free speed.
  • Do not turn the descent into repeated sprinting out of corners.
  • Reset before Twin Lakes inbound.
Fuel cue: Resume fueling as soon as it is safe.
7. Twin Lakes Inbound → Outward Bound
Approx. 61.2–77.1 mi
Steady Power
170–195 W
Heart Rate
132–142 bpm
RPE
6–7 / 10

This is where your bike-specific durability starts getting tested.

  • If your HR is fine but your legs are starting to feel loaded, reduce power.
  • Do not mistake ultra-running endurance for unlimited cycling durability.
  • If you feel great, preserve it. The decisive section is still ahead.
Fuel cue: Keep fueling on schedule even if you still feel strong.
8. Outward Bound → Carter Summit
Approx. 77.1–88.8 mi
Climbing Power
180–200 W initially
Heart Rate
138–147 bpm
If Strong Late
200–210 W / ~150 bpm

This is the section you protected all day for.

  • If your legs are still functioning well, begin spending gradually.
  • If muscular fatigue is prominent, do not force watts simply because HR is low.
  • Do not turn one good five-minute patch into a 20-minute mistake.
Fuel cue: Keep calories coming. Do not stop eating because the finish feels closer.
9. Carter Summit → Finish
Final section
Power
185–205 W, then build
Heart Rate
142–150+, as available
Priority
Progressively race
  • Do not unload everything immediately after Carter.
  • Increase effort as remaining race duration decreases.
  • When the race is truly short, the governor comes off.
Fuel cue: Keep eating and drinking until the finish is actually close.

Late-Race Decision Tree

You feel greatStay disciplined through Twin Lakes inbound. Begin increasing effort after Outward Bound, not before.
You feel normalHold the plan. Smooth power, controlled HR, consistent fueling, no unnecessary surges.
Your legs are fadingReduce power before HR forces you to. Use terrain efficiently, keep fueling, and prioritize uninterrupted forward movement.

Your Experience Rule

You know what Leadville feels like. You do not need to prove that knowledge in the first half.

Use your previous finishes for line choice, descending, terrain anticipation, and knowing where to stay calm. Do not pace according to what you remember being able to do in better bike-specific shape.

Quick-Reference Race Card

Section Power HR RPE / Cue
Start → Carter 200–210 W 130–136 5–6. Be deliberately easy.
Carter → Outward Bound Terrain dictated 120s–low 130s Use skill for free speed.
Outward Bound → Twin Lakes 170–195 W; rises 195–210 128–138 Smooth, economical.
Twin Lakes → Columbine 175–195 W 132–140 Prepare, don't pre-race.
Lower Columbine 190–205 W 138–144 RPE 6–6.5.
Middle Columbine 185–200 W 142–147 RPE 6.5–7.
Upper Columbine HR/RPE governed 145–150 152+ = warning.
Columbine → Twin Lakes Terrain dictated Let HR fall Recover without losing speed.
Twin Lakes → Outward Bound 170–195 W 132–142 Durability test begins.
Outward Bound → Carter 180–200 W; 200–210 if strong 138–147 Begin spending gradually.
Carter → Finish 185–205 W, then build 142–150+ Progressively race.

All-day reminder: experience saves energy. Excitement spends it.

This plan intentionally avoids assigning a fabricated Critical Power. It uses your recent St. Kevyn's field data, threshold heart rate, RPE, long-term Leadville experience, altitude familiarity, and current bike-specific preparation to guide race execution.