QT2 Systems · 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 Santa Cruz

Hillary Schmidt

This is your first triathlon in a few years, but you are not starting over. Reconnect your endurance, judgment, and competitive instincts to the rhythm of racing—then give yourself permission to empty the tank.

Race purposeA-race performance
Bike target175–185 W
Run target200–210 W
Quietly fierce (unless on a pool deck, then obnoxiously loud...). You have done the work. Go use it.

Strategy at a Glance

Swim · Approximately 34–40 Minutes

  • Expect the exact time to depend on surf conditions.
  • Establish your breathing and line without forcing the opening.
  • Use useful feet, but remain responsible for navigation.
  • Expect cold Pacific water without treating it as a problem.
  • Exit calmly and move purposefully toward Depot Park.

Bike · 175–185 W

  • Power primary; RPE secondary; heart rate for context.
  • Use the roller ladder selectively.
  • Shift early and protect cadence into a headwind.
  • Release power over every crest and take cheap speed.
  • Fuel at 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.

Run · Approximately 200–210 W

  • Use approximately 7:10–7:25/mile where terrain and footing permit.
  • Allow pace to yield through climbs and mixed surfaces.
  • Reach mile 10 ready to let loose.
  • Stop protecting the race and start finishing it.

Race Identity

  • Controlled without becoming cautious.
  • Have fun, interact, and cheer people on.
  • Build into competitive pressure.
  • Quietly fierce. Then empty the tank.

Primary Anchors and Control System

Bike Anchors

Critical Power 223 W
LT1 176 W
OGC 198 W
Threshold HR 177 bpm

Run Anchors

Critical Speed 6:16/mile
LT1 Pace 7:22/mile
OGC Pace 6:36/mile
Threshold HR 188 bpm

Power tells you what you are producing. Perceived exertion tells you what that output is costing. Heart rate provides additional context, but it is not a number to chase.

Green

Power, RPE, mechanics, and heart rate make sense together. Continue.

Yellow

HR is higher than expected, but RPE and mechanics remain controlled. Check fueling, hydration, wind, temperature, and cadence. Favor the lower end temporarily and monitor.

Red

HR and RPE are materially elevated at ordinary output, mechanics are deteriorating, or output is becoming unsustainable. Reduce workload, stabilize, and address the cause.

An unusual heart-rate reading by itself does not make the decision. Use the full picture.

Your Athlete-Specific Execution Factors

1. Control the Invisible Bike Cost

You are unlikely to overbike through recklessness. The danger is accumulating small, seemingly harmless spikes as terrain, turns, accelerations, and wind repeatedly ask for more.

Is this power buying meaningful speed?

If not, release it.

2. Protect Cadence in the Wind

A headwind can gradually pull your cadence down without making the change obvious. Shift earlier than you think you need to. Maintain normal pressure and aerodynamic posture without turning the wind into an extended low-cadence strength effort.

3. Fuel the Runner You Want to Be

Your run cannot use energy you failed to take in on the bike. Electrolyte drink alone is hydration—not sufficient carbohydrate fueling. Target 80–90 g/hour. Ketone-IQ does not count toward that total.

4. Build Into Competitive Pressure

Settle in, re-establish the feel of racing, and allow the pressure to grow. You do not need to prove anything in the first hour. You do need to give yourself permission to compete before the race is almost over.

Swim and Beach-to-Transition Execution

Before the StartPrepare
  • Stay warm for as long as practical before entering the water.
  • If safe access is available before race day, use a short ocean familiarization swim to experience the temperature, swell, sight lines, and beach entry.
  • Make sure your goggles and wetsuit have already been tested together.
EstablishStart → Initial Buoys

Begin decisively but appropriately. Establish breathing, stroke length, and position without chasing an unsustainable opening. Find clean water or useful feet, then settle into your sustainable rhythm.

Cue: Calm, strong, connected.

Offshore LineInitial Buoys → First Red Buoy

Use the sighting buoys to maintain the most direct practical line. Draft when the feet are genuinely useful, but do not follow someone navigating poorly or swimming below your natural rhythm.

Cue: Use the group; own the line.

Behind the WharfRed Buoy → Red Buoy

Expect the visual environment and water movement to change around the wharf. Stay composed, maintain contact with the water, and keep navigation deliberate.

Cue: Nothing to solve—just keep swimming.

Return and Beach ExitFinal Turn → Depot Park

Maintain pressure and continue sighting through the beach approach. Do not mentally finish before stable footing. Stand carefully, regain balance, and begin moving forward. Use the beach-to-transition run to restore your land legs and remove the top of the wetsuit while moving when balance allows.

You do not need to rush chaotically. You do need to remain purposeful.

T1

  • Complete the essentials in the same deliberate order you practiced.
  • If your hands are cold, slow down just enough to complete each task correctly.
  • Mount under control and expect turns, congestion, and changes in speed.
  • The race does not need to be won in transition, but it should not pause there.
Cue: Purposeful, not frantic.

Bike: 30,000-Foot Approach

The Santa Cruz bike course is not defined by one major climb. Its challenge is the accumulation of repeated coastal rollers, exposure, changing wind, and constant small decisions. Your execution should be steady in physiological cost, not mechanically flat in power.

Official 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 Santa Cruz bike elevation profile
Official 2026 bike profile. Segment boundaries below are approximate execution markers.

Provisional Power Ladder

These targets should be rehearsed over the next couple of weeks.

Terrain or Situation Power Guidance Execution Rule
Fast downhill or cheap-speed section Below 175 W or coast Stay aerodynamic and let momentum work
Steady flat or mild terrain 175–182 W Default sustainable output
Longer rise or controlled headwind pressure 183–195 W Shift early and protect cadence
Moderate roller 195–205 W Brief, purposeful pressure
Short, steeper ramp 205–218 W Use only for short terrain demands
Brief transient ceiling Approximately 223 W Momentary ceiling, never a number to settle at

Crest and Downhill Rule

Begin releasing power as the grade flattens. Do not carry climbing power over the crest. Pedal only while those watts are purchasing useful acceleration. Once momentum and aerodynamics provide the speed, reduce power or coast.

Wind Rule

  • Maintain aerodynamic posture.
  • Shift before cadence deteriorates.
  • Hold physiological pressure rather than expected speed.
  • Reassess the wind after the turnaround.

If the Legs Feel Flat: Rust-Shaking Protocol

  1. First allow enough time to settle into riding.
  2. Perform several short, focused, high-intensity accelerations. These should be purposeful, not maximal.
  3. Recover fully between them and reassess.
  4. If the legs respond, return to the planned system gradually.
  5. If they do not respond, temporarily ride below target and allow the legs to come around.
Do not force race power at abnormally high RPE simply because the target is written on the page.

Bike: Section-by-Section Execution

Santa Cruz RolloutApprox. Miles 0–4

The opening includes turns, accelerations, congestion, and the transition from town to open road.

  • Stay mostly at or below the lower end of the steady range.
  • Avoid matching every acceleration made by nearby riders.
  • Shift cleanly, settle cadence, and establish position.
  • Begin fueling early rather than waiting for the course to settle.

Cue: Settle in. You know how to do this.

Establish the Coastal SystemApprox. Miles 4–16
  • Ride steady terrain at 175–182 W.
  • Apply the roller ladder selectively.
  • Release before carrying power over each crest.
  • Check cadence regularly, especially into the wind.
  • Confirm fueling is occurring on schedule.

Do not confuse feeling good with permission to make every rise expensive.

Cue: Smooth pressure. Free speed. Keep fueling.

First Major Roller ComplexApprox. Miles 16–22
  • Use 183–195 W on longer rises.
  • Use 195–205 W on moderate rollers when the effort will remain brief.
  • Reserve 205–218 W for genuinely short, steeper demands.
  • Keep the transient ceiling near CP and momentary.
  • Release at every crest and use your handling skills on the descent.

You are allowed to race this terrain. You are not allowed to turn repeated rollers into repeated threshold intervals.

Cue: Pressure up; release early.

Gazos Creek ApproachApprox. Miles 22–28
  • Hold intended output rather than defending expected speed.
  • Continue fueling through the turnaround approach.
  • Stay alert to riders slowing, turning, or changing lines.
  • Inventory cadence, RPE, hydration, and accumulated cost.

Cue: Hold the system.

Turnaround and Southbound ResetApprox. Miles 28–34

The wind relationship may change immediately or gradually. Observe what is actually happening.

  • Re-establish power, cadence, and aerodynamic posture.
  • Do not surge to regain speed.
  • Compare power with RPE and heart rate.
  • Confirm you are on track for 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.

If the system is green, continue using the full ladder. If yellow, favor the lower end while addressing the cause.

Cue: New direction. Fresh assessment.

Decisive Return Roller ComplexApprox. Miles 34–41
  • Use the full ladder if power, RPE, and mechanics agree.
  • If physiological cost rises, compress the upper bands first.
  • Shift early enough to prevent a low-cadence grind.
  • Use descents and crests to preserve momentum without wasteful power.

This is a place to be quietly fierce: controlled, technically clean, and increasingly competitive.

Cue: Strong, not spiky.

Southbound Coastal RhythmApprox. Miles 41–52
  • Protect speed through position, cadence, and clean lines.
  • Do not purchase minor speed gains with repeated high-power work.
  • Complete the bulk of remaining fueling before final re-entry.
  • If everything is green, ride with increasing competitive intent within the system.

Cue: Make speed cheap.

Santa Cruz Re-entryApprox. Miles 52–56
  • Stay alert through turns, traffic, and changing speeds.
  • Take final fuel early enough to be useful and manageable before T2.
  • Maintain pressure where safe and efficient.
  • Prepare mentally to run rather than judging the bike split.

Cue: Finish the bike. Start the run.

T2

  • Dismount under control.
  • Move through your practiced sequence without adding decisions.
  • Begin the run with everything you need and no emotional reaction to the bike split.
  • The first run mile is a transition into running—not a referendum on your fitness.
Cue: Quick hands. Calm mind.

Run: 30,000-Foot Approach

Your run durability is one of your greatest advantages. The objective is not to protect that strength indefinitely. It is to make the strength available for the decisive part of the race.

Plan to use approximately 200–210 W as the primary control. Use 7:10–7:25 per mile as the supporting range where grade, footing, and wind allow. Allow pace to yield on the two principal climbing blocks and through mixed-surface sections.

Do not treat this as a uniformly flat road half marathon. Run the physiological cost of the course, then race the final three miles.
Official 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 Santa Cruz run elevation profile
Official 2026 run profile. The principal elevation blocks occur around miles 3–5 and 8–10.

Run: Section-by-Section Execution

West Cliff OpeningApprox. Miles 0–3
  • Begin near 200 W rather than immediately forcing 210 W.
  • Allow pace to settle near the slower portion of 7:10–7:25/mile.
  • Check posture, cadence, breathing, and stomach comfort.
  • Make fueling a must-do right off the bat according to the separate nutrition plan.

This is control, not timidity. You are preparing to build.

Cue: Build into the race.

First Climbing BlockApprox. Miles 3–5
  • Let pace slow with the grade.
  • Hold approximately 200–210 W only while mechanics and RPE remain appropriate.
  • Shorten stride slightly and maintain cadence.
  • Do not repay every uphill second immediately on the descent.

Cue: Effort stays steady. Pace can move.

Wilder Ranch and Bluff TrailApprox. Miles 5–8
  • Run by power, RPE, and footing rather than momentary pace.
  • Look ahead to select a clean line.
  • Maintain quick, light contact on less predictable footing.
  • Allow displayed pace to fluctuate without interpreting it as a problem.

Cue: Quick feet. Quiet mind.

Return Climbing BlockApprox. Miles 8–10
  • Maintain intended physiological pressure rather than chasing flat-ground pace.
  • If green, continue near the upper end of the range.
  • If yellow, protect mechanics and stabilize through the climb.
  • Prepare to make a competitive decision as terrain becomes favorable.

Cue: Hold form. Earn the close.

West Cliff ReturnApprox. Miles 10–12.8

The controlled phase is over if mechanics, RPE, and fueling status remain sound.

  • Increase pressure beyond 210 W if sustainable and competitively useful.
  • Allow pace to improve naturally rather than forcing one abrupt surge.
  • Use competitors ahead as targets.
  • Stay engaged with the race and the people around you.

Do not wait until the final few hundred meters to discover that you protected energy you could have used.

Cue: Quietly fierce. Now compete.

Cowell Beach FinishApprox. Miles 12.8–13.1

The final approach includes turns and sand. Normal road pace no longer matters.

  • Increase cadence as needed.
  • Keep your eyes up and commit to the best available line.
  • Use everything remaining.

Cue: Empty the tank.

Fueling and Hydration

This is not a full nutrition prescription. It is the non-negotiable execution framework that protects your race.

Bike

  • Consume 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.
  • Begin early and continue on schedule rather than relying on hunger.
  • Electrolyte drink without carbohydrate does not satisfy the target.
  • Ketone-IQ does not count toward the carbohydrate target.
  • Over the next three weeks, dial in the exact race-day products and delivery system.
  • Drink at a rate supporting one urination on the bike or a clear need to urinate entering T2.

Run

  • Spend the next three weeks FOCUSED on dialing in the specific fueling you will use on race day.
  • If the stomach feels unsettled early, stabilize it without abandoning fueling for the remainder of the run.
You are not fueling the current mile. You are fueling the athlete who needs to race the final five.

Race-Day Decision Rules

If the Water Is Colder or Rougher

  • Control the first minutes rather than interpreting conditions emotionally.
  • Lengthen the exhale, establish contact with the water, and navigate deliberately.
  • Adjust the time expectation; do not fight the ocean.

If Bike Speed Is Lower

  • Check wind, grade, road surface, and position.
  • Return attention to power, RPE, and cadence.
  • Do not spend extra power solely to restore expected speed.

If Bike Cadence Is Dropping

  • Shift earlier.
  • Re-establish normal race cadence and posture.
  • Do not allow a headwind to become a prolonged strength interval.

If the Bike Legs Feel Rusty

  • Use the short, high-cadence surge protocol.
  • Reassess immediately.
  • If unresolved, under-ride for a bit and let the legs come online.

If You Fall Behind on Bike Fueling

  • Correct promptly using the practiced plan.
  • Do not attempt one large, unpracticed catch-up dose.
  • Recognize this is now a pacing issue as well as a nutrition issue.

If Run Pace Is Slow on Climbs or Trail

  • Check power, RPE, mechanics, grade, wind, and footing.
  • If those indicators are appropriate, accept the pace.
  • Do not chase lost seconds immediately.

If You Feel Excellent at Mile 10

  • Believe it.
  • Increase pressure progressively.
  • Compete with the athletes ahead of you.
  • Stop saving the race.

Mental Execution

You race well when you are having fun, interacting, and cheering people on. Those behaviors are not distractions; they are signs that you are engaged and operating like yourself.

Your return does not require you to prove in the opening miles that you can still do this. Your preparation already answered that question. Race patiently enough to reconnect with the process, then fiercely enough to use what you brought.

Before the Start

You did the work. Go use it.

Swim

Calm, strong, connected.

Bike

Smooth pressure. Free speed. Keep fueling.

Run Opening

Build into the race.

Mile 10 Onward

Quietly fierce. Now compete.

Finish

Empty the tank.

Objective Quick-Reference Race Card

Bike

Approx. Section Base Output Terrain and Wind Rule Cost Check Cue
Miles 0–4 At or below 175–182 W Avoid congestion-driven spikes; settle cadence RPE calm; begin fueling Settle in
Miles 4–16 175–182 W Apply ladder selectively; release at crests Cadence, RPE, fueling Smooth pressure
Miles 16–22 175–182 W base Long rise 183–195; roller 195–205; short ramp 205–218; brief ceiling around 223 No repeated threshold work Pressure up; release early
Miles 22–28 175–182 W Do not defend speed into exposure or wind Cadence, RPE, hydration Hold the system
Miles 28–34 175–182 W Reassess actual wind after turnaround Power, RPE, HR, fueling Fresh assessment
Miles 34–41 175–182 W base Full ladder if green; compress upper bands if cost rises Protect cadence and mechanics Strong, not spiky
Miles 41–52 175–182 W Make speed through position and momentum Finish major fueling Make speed cheap
Miles 52–56 Purposeful within system Technical re-entry; no careless surges Final fuel; prepare to run Finish bike; start run

Run

Approx. Section Power and Pace Terrain Rule Cost Check Cue
Miles 0–3 Near 200 W; roughly 7:10–7:25/mile Establish honest rhythm Posture, cadence, stomach, RPE Build into the race
Miles 3–5 Approx. 200–210 W Pace yields on first climbing block Mechanics and RPE control Effort steady; pace moves
Miles 5–8 Approx. 200–210 W Pace yields to footing, turns, and exposure Quick feet; relaxed mechanics Quick feet; quiet mind
Miles 8–10 Approx. 200–210 W Pace yields on second climbing block Green: upper end; yellow: stabilize Earn the close
Miles 10–12.8 Progress beyond 210 W if sustainable Use favorable terrain to race Mechanics and RPE support increase Quietly fierce
Miles 12.8–13.1 Everything available Ignore road pace on sand Cadence and commitment Empty the tank

Final Reminder

You do not need this race to tell you whether you are still a triathlete. You already know that.

Use the swim to enter the day. Use the bike to build a strong, fueled platform. Use the opening run miles to establish control. Then allow your durability, experience, and competitive instinct to take over.

Have fun. Engage with the race. Cheer for people. Keep fueling. Build the pressure.

When the race reaches the point where caution is no longer useful: Quietly fierce. Now compete.