Hillary Schmidt
This is your first triathlon in a few years, but you are not starting over. Reconnect your endurance, judgment, and competitive instincts to the rhythm of racing—then give yourself permission to empty the tank.
Strategy at a Glance
Swim · Approximately 34–40 Minutes
- Expect the exact time to depend on surf conditions.
- Establish your breathing and line without forcing the opening.
- Use useful feet, but remain responsible for navigation.
- Expect cold Pacific water without treating it as a problem.
- Exit calmly and move purposefully toward Depot Park.
Bike · 175–185 W
- Power primary; RPE secondary; heart rate for context.
- Use the roller ladder selectively.
- Shift early and protect cadence into a headwind.
- Release power over every crest and take cheap speed.
- Fuel at 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.
Run · Approximately 200–210 W
- Use approximately 7:10–7:25/mile where terrain and footing permit.
- Allow pace to yield through climbs and mixed surfaces.
- Reach mile 10 ready to let loose.
- Stop protecting the race and start finishing it.
Race Identity
- Controlled without becoming cautious.
- Have fun, interact, and cheer people on.
- Build into competitive pressure.
- Quietly fierce. Then empty the tank.
Primary Anchors and Control System
Bike Anchors
| Critical Power | 223 W |
|---|---|
| LT1 | 176 W |
| OGC | 198 W |
| Threshold HR | 177 bpm |
Run Anchors
| Critical Speed | 6:16/mile |
|---|---|
| LT1 Pace | 7:22/mile |
| OGC Pace | 6:36/mile |
| Threshold HR | 188 bpm |
Power tells you what you are producing. Perceived exertion tells you what that output is costing. Heart rate provides additional context, but it is not a number to chase.
Green
Power, RPE, mechanics, and heart rate make sense together. Continue.
Yellow
HR is higher than expected, but RPE and mechanics remain controlled. Check fueling, hydration, wind, temperature, and cadence. Favor the lower end temporarily and monitor.
Red
HR and RPE are materially elevated at ordinary output, mechanics are deteriorating, or output is becoming unsustainable. Reduce workload, stabilize, and address the cause.
Your Athlete-Specific Execution Factors
1. Control the Invisible Bike Cost
You are unlikely to overbike through recklessness. The danger is accumulating small, seemingly harmless spikes as terrain, turns, accelerations, and wind repeatedly ask for more.
Is this power buying meaningful speed?
If not, release it.
2. Protect Cadence in the Wind
A headwind can gradually pull your cadence down without making the change obvious. Shift earlier than you think you need to. Maintain normal pressure and aerodynamic posture without turning the wind into an extended low-cadence strength effort.
3. Fuel the Runner You Want to Be
Your run cannot use energy you failed to take in on the bike. Electrolyte drink alone is hydration—not sufficient carbohydrate fueling. Target 80–90 g/hour. Ketone-IQ does not count toward that total.
4. Build Into Competitive Pressure
Settle in, re-establish the feel of racing, and allow the pressure to grow. You do not need to prove anything in the first hour. You do need to give yourself permission to compete before the race is almost over.
Swim and Beach-to-Transition Execution
- Stay warm for as long as practical before entering the water.
- If safe access is available before race day, use a short ocean familiarization swim to experience the temperature, swell, sight lines, and beach entry.
- Make sure your goggles and wetsuit have already been tested together.
Begin decisively but appropriately. Establish breathing, stroke length, and position without chasing an unsustainable opening. Find clean water or useful feet, then settle into your sustainable rhythm.
Cue: Calm, strong, connected.
Use the sighting buoys to maintain the most direct practical line. Draft when the feet are genuinely useful, but do not follow someone navigating poorly or swimming below your natural rhythm.
Cue: Use the group; own the line.
Expect the visual environment and water movement to change around the wharf. Stay composed, maintain contact with the water, and keep navigation deliberate.
Cue: Nothing to solve—just keep swimming.
Maintain pressure and continue sighting through the beach approach. Do not mentally finish before stable footing. Stand carefully, regain balance, and begin moving forward. Use the beach-to-transition run to restore your land legs and remove the top of the wetsuit while moving when balance allows.
You do not need to rush chaotically. You do need to remain purposeful.
T1
- Complete the essentials in the same deliberate order you practiced.
- If your hands are cold, slow down just enough to complete each task correctly.
- Mount under control and expect turns, congestion, and changes in speed.
- The race does not need to be won in transition, but it should not pause there.
Bike: 30,000-Foot Approach
The Santa Cruz bike course is not defined by one major climb. Its challenge is the accumulation of repeated coastal rollers, exposure, changing wind, and constant small decisions. Your execution should be steady in physiological cost, not mechanically flat in power.

Provisional Power Ladder
These targets should be rehearsed over the next couple of weeks.
| Terrain or Situation | Power Guidance | Execution Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Fast downhill or cheap-speed section | Below 175 W or coast | Stay aerodynamic and let momentum work |
| Steady flat or mild terrain | 175–182 W | Default sustainable output |
| Longer rise or controlled headwind pressure | 183–195 W | Shift early and protect cadence |
| Moderate roller | 195–205 W | Brief, purposeful pressure |
| Short, steeper ramp | 205–218 W | Use only for short terrain demands |
| Brief transient ceiling | Approximately 223 W | Momentary ceiling, never a number to settle at |
Crest and Downhill Rule
Begin releasing power as the grade flattens. Do not carry climbing power over the crest. Pedal only while those watts are purchasing useful acceleration. Once momentum and aerodynamics provide the speed, reduce power or coast.
Wind Rule
- Maintain aerodynamic posture.
- Shift before cadence deteriorates.
- Hold physiological pressure rather than expected speed.
- Reassess the wind after the turnaround.
If the Legs Feel Flat: Rust-Shaking Protocol
- First allow enough time to settle into riding.
- Perform several short, focused, high-intensity accelerations. These should be purposeful, not maximal.
- Recover fully between them and reassess.
- If the legs respond, return to the planned system gradually.
- If they do not respond, temporarily ride below target and allow the legs to come around.
Bike: Section-by-Section Execution
The opening includes turns, accelerations, congestion, and the transition from town to open road.
- Stay mostly at or below the lower end of the steady range.
- Avoid matching every acceleration made by nearby riders.
- Shift cleanly, settle cadence, and establish position.
- Begin fueling early rather than waiting for the course to settle.
Cue: Settle in. You know how to do this.
- Ride steady terrain at 175–182 W.
- Apply the roller ladder selectively.
- Release before carrying power over each crest.
- Check cadence regularly, especially into the wind.
- Confirm fueling is occurring on schedule.
Do not confuse feeling good with permission to make every rise expensive.
Cue: Smooth pressure. Free speed. Keep fueling.
- Use 183–195 W on longer rises.
- Use 195–205 W on moderate rollers when the effort will remain brief.
- Reserve 205–218 W for genuinely short, steeper demands.
- Keep the transient ceiling near CP and momentary.
- Release at every crest and use your handling skills on the descent.
You are allowed to race this terrain. You are not allowed to turn repeated rollers into repeated threshold intervals.
Cue: Pressure up; release early.
- Hold intended output rather than defending expected speed.
- Continue fueling through the turnaround approach.
- Stay alert to riders slowing, turning, or changing lines.
- Inventory cadence, RPE, hydration, and accumulated cost.
Cue: Hold the system.
The wind relationship may change immediately or gradually. Observe what is actually happening.
- Re-establish power, cadence, and aerodynamic posture.
- Do not surge to regain speed.
- Compare power with RPE and heart rate.
- Confirm you are on track for 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.
If the system is green, continue using the full ladder. If yellow, favor the lower end while addressing the cause.
Cue: New direction. Fresh assessment.
- Use the full ladder if power, RPE, and mechanics agree.
- If physiological cost rises, compress the upper bands first.
- Shift early enough to prevent a low-cadence grind.
- Use descents and crests to preserve momentum without wasteful power.
This is a place to be quietly fierce: controlled, technically clean, and increasingly competitive.
Cue: Strong, not spiky.
- Protect speed through position, cadence, and clean lines.
- Do not purchase minor speed gains with repeated high-power work.
- Complete the bulk of remaining fueling before final re-entry.
- If everything is green, ride with increasing competitive intent within the system.
Cue: Make speed cheap.
- Stay alert through turns, traffic, and changing speeds.
- Take final fuel early enough to be useful and manageable before T2.
- Maintain pressure where safe and efficient.
- Prepare mentally to run rather than judging the bike split.
Cue: Finish the bike. Start the run.
T2
- Dismount under control.
- Move through your practiced sequence without adding decisions.
- Begin the run with everything you need and no emotional reaction to the bike split.
- The first run mile is a transition into running—not a referendum on your fitness.
Run: 30,000-Foot Approach
Your run durability is one of your greatest advantages. The objective is not to protect that strength indefinitely. It is to make the strength available for the decisive part of the race.
Plan to use approximately 200–210 W as the primary control. Use 7:10–7:25 per mile as the supporting range where grade, footing, and wind allow. Allow pace to yield on the two principal climbing blocks and through mixed-surface sections.

Run: Section-by-Section Execution
- Begin near 200 W rather than immediately forcing 210 W.
- Allow pace to settle near the slower portion of 7:10–7:25/mile.
- Check posture, cadence, breathing, and stomach comfort.
- Make fueling a must-do right off the bat according to the separate nutrition plan.
This is control, not timidity. You are preparing to build.
Cue: Build into the race.
- Let pace slow with the grade.
- Hold approximately 200–210 W only while mechanics and RPE remain appropriate.
- Shorten stride slightly and maintain cadence.
- Do not repay every uphill second immediately on the descent.
Cue: Effort stays steady. Pace can move.
- Run by power, RPE, and footing rather than momentary pace.
- Look ahead to select a clean line.
- Maintain quick, light contact on less predictable footing.
- Allow displayed pace to fluctuate without interpreting it as a problem.
Cue: Quick feet. Quiet mind.
- Maintain intended physiological pressure rather than chasing flat-ground pace.
- If green, continue near the upper end of the range.
- If yellow, protect mechanics and stabilize through the climb.
- Prepare to make a competitive decision as terrain becomes favorable.
Cue: Hold form. Earn the close.
The controlled phase is over if mechanics, RPE, and fueling status remain sound.
- Increase pressure beyond 210 W if sustainable and competitively useful.
- Allow pace to improve naturally rather than forcing one abrupt surge.
- Use competitors ahead as targets.
- Stay engaged with the race and the people around you.
Do not wait until the final few hundred meters to discover that you protected energy you could have used.
Cue: Quietly fierce. Now compete.
The final approach includes turns and sand. Normal road pace no longer matters.
- Increase cadence as needed.
- Keep your eyes up and commit to the best available line.
- Use everything remaining.
Cue: Empty the tank.
Fueling and Hydration
This is not a full nutrition prescription. It is the non-negotiable execution framework that protects your race.
Bike
- Consume 80–90 g of carbohydrate per hour.
- Begin early and continue on schedule rather than relying on hunger.
- Electrolyte drink without carbohydrate does not satisfy the target.
- Ketone-IQ does not count toward the carbohydrate target.
- Over the next three weeks, dial in the exact race-day products and delivery system.
- Drink at a rate supporting one urination on the bike or a clear need to urinate entering T2.
Run
- Spend the next three weeks FOCUSED on dialing in the specific fueling you will use on race day.
- If the stomach feels unsettled early, stabilize it without abandoning fueling for the remainder of the run.
Race-Day Decision Rules
If the Water Is Colder or Rougher
- Control the first minutes rather than interpreting conditions emotionally.
- Lengthen the exhale, establish contact with the water, and navigate deliberately.
- Adjust the time expectation; do not fight the ocean.
If Bike Speed Is Lower
- Check wind, grade, road surface, and position.
- Return attention to power, RPE, and cadence.
- Do not spend extra power solely to restore expected speed.
If Bike Cadence Is Dropping
- Shift earlier.
- Re-establish normal race cadence and posture.
- Do not allow a headwind to become a prolonged strength interval.
If the Bike Legs Feel Rusty
- Use the short, high-cadence surge protocol.
- Reassess immediately.
- If unresolved, under-ride for a bit and let the legs come online.
If You Fall Behind on Bike Fueling
- Correct promptly using the practiced plan.
- Do not attempt one large, unpracticed catch-up dose.
- Recognize this is now a pacing issue as well as a nutrition issue.
If Run Pace Is Slow on Climbs or Trail
- Check power, RPE, mechanics, grade, wind, and footing.
- If those indicators are appropriate, accept the pace.
- Do not chase lost seconds immediately.
If You Feel Excellent at Mile 10
- Believe it.
- Increase pressure progressively.
- Compete with the athletes ahead of you.
- Stop saving the race.
Mental Execution
You race well when you are having fun, interacting, and cheering people on. Those behaviors are not distractions; they are signs that you are engaged and operating like yourself.
Your return does not require you to prove in the opening miles that you can still do this. Your preparation already answered that question. Race patiently enough to reconnect with the process, then fiercely enough to use what you brought.
Before the Start
You did the work. Go use it.
Swim
Calm, strong, connected.
Bike
Smooth pressure. Free speed. Keep fueling.
Run Opening
Build into the race.
Mile 10 Onward
Quietly fierce. Now compete.
Finish
Empty the tank.
Objective Quick-Reference Race Card
Bike
| Approx. Section | Base Output | Terrain and Wind Rule | Cost Check | Cue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles 0–4 | At or below 175–182 W | Avoid congestion-driven spikes; settle cadence | RPE calm; begin fueling | Settle in |
| Miles 4–16 | 175–182 W | Apply ladder selectively; release at crests | Cadence, RPE, fueling | Smooth pressure |
| Miles 16–22 | 175–182 W base | Long rise 183–195; roller 195–205; short ramp 205–218; brief ceiling around 223 | No repeated threshold work | Pressure up; release early |
| Miles 22–28 | 175–182 W | Do not defend speed into exposure or wind | Cadence, RPE, hydration | Hold the system |
| Miles 28–34 | 175–182 W | Reassess actual wind after turnaround | Power, RPE, HR, fueling | Fresh assessment |
| Miles 34–41 | 175–182 W base | Full ladder if green; compress upper bands if cost rises | Protect cadence and mechanics | Strong, not spiky |
| Miles 41–52 | 175–182 W | Make speed through position and momentum | Finish major fueling | Make speed cheap |
| Miles 52–56 | Purposeful within system | Technical re-entry; no careless surges | Final fuel; prepare to run | Finish bike; start run |
Run
| Approx. Section | Power and Pace | Terrain Rule | Cost Check | Cue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles 0–3 | Near 200 W; roughly 7:10–7:25/mile | Establish honest rhythm | Posture, cadence, stomach, RPE | Build into the race |
| Miles 3–5 | Approx. 200–210 W | Pace yields on first climbing block | Mechanics and RPE control | Effort steady; pace moves |
| Miles 5–8 | Approx. 200–210 W | Pace yields to footing, turns, and exposure | Quick feet; relaxed mechanics | Quick feet; quiet mind |
| Miles 8–10 | Approx. 200–210 W | Pace yields on second climbing block | Green: upper end; yellow: stabilize | Earn the close |
| Miles 10–12.8 | Progress beyond 210 W if sustainable | Use favorable terrain to race | Mechanics and RPE support increase | Quietly fierce |
| Miles 12.8–13.1 | Everything available | Ignore road pace on sand | Cadence and commitment | Empty the tank |
Final Reminder
You do not need this race to tell you whether you are still a triathlete. You already know that.
Use the swim to enter the day. Use the bike to build a strong, fueled platform. Use the opening run miles to establish control. Then allow your durability, experience, and competitive instinct to take over.
Have fun. Engage with the race. Cheer for people. Keep fueling. Build the pressure.