2026 IRONMAN 70.3 Jones Beach - Andrew Cruz

Race strategy at a glance

This is a B race in unusually difficult conditions. Your job is to make sound decisions all day, stay on top of fueling, and arrive at the run able to use the fitness you have shown. A fast split in normal weather tells us what you can do; it does not tell you what Saturday’s split ought to be.

Your control system

Bike: Power guides the effort. HR and perceived effort tell you what that power is costing. Speed is an outcome.

Run: STRYD power is the primary guide because wind can make pace swing. Check it against breathing, stride, and HR.

Both: Use the lower end of a range when gusts, handling, or rising effort warrant it. An easy stretch does not create an obligation to repay every watt.

Fuel: Keep your established carbohydrate schedule even if the cool weather means you drink less.

Race morning: The forecast calls for rain and strong northerly wind, but the conditions you encounter take precedence over a forecast. Check the latest Southern Nassau forecast: Southern Nassau forecast

Swim | Get comfortable, then build

Official 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 New York swim course map, athlete guide page 29 — Official 2026 athlete guide, page 29 · Open full-size swim map. The guide map controls if race routing changes.

The swim is where patience matters most. Zach’s Bay is protected, but it can still be rough in this wind. You may feel unsettled at first. That feeling does not mean you are swimming badly or that the rest of the race is going wrong.

Start on the easier side. Seed yourself where you can begin without fighting for space. Through the opening leg, keep the effort below your eventual race effort. Find your breathing, get a clear look at the next buoy, and let the first several minutes be about becoming comfortable in the water.

Once you have rhythm, begin to build. On the longer middle section, sight deliberately and draft when it helps without letting another swimmer pull you into an effort you have not chosen. If chop interrupts a breath or a sighting, take the next stroke you need to regain control. You do not have to solve the whole swim at once. Take it one stroke at a time.

On the return toward the Cove, hold your line and add pressure if you feel settled. You can swim strongly once you are comfortable. The rough water is part of everyone’s race; there is no time to recover by forcing the opening minutes.

Swim cue: Settle first. Build second.

T1

Take the short run from the Cove to transition under control. Let your breathing come down, complete your usual routine, and start the bike ready to ride by feel and numbers rather than by the swim clock.

Bike | Ride the conditions, not the split

The bike is two laps of a broadly fast course with a long gradual rise toward the northern end, a southbound return, and an exposed Bay Parkway section. The wind may make each direction feel like a different course. That is expected.

Your Western Mass ride shows that you can ride at a high level and run well afterward. Saturday asks for more flexibility. A 2:20 split is normal-condition context, not a target to defend. If the wind makes the ride considerably slower, keep making good decisions. Let me say that again…If the wind makes the ride considerably slower, keep making good decisions.

Official 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 New York bike course map, athlete guide page 34 — Official 2026 athlete guide, page 34 · Open full-size bike map. The guide map controls if race routing changes.

Course section	Working power and execution
Start to mainland — approximately miles 0–5 and 28–33	Settle into aero riding and read the wind. Do not use early speed or other riders to decide your output. Work toward your range as breathing and handling settle.
Gradual rise north — approximately miles 5–14 and 33–42	In a manageable wind, generally 225–240 W. If the northerly headwind is severe or gusts raise the cost, ride closer to 220–235 W or briefly below. This is a long rise; avoid turning it into a prolonged push.
Northern routing and southbound return — approximately miles 14–21 and 42–49	Handle the lane change, turnaround, Old Country Road and Carman Avenue routing cleanly. Let power return toward 230–245 W when it feels comfortable. Near 250 W is available briefly if HR, breathing, and handling remain settled, but release pressure as speed rises rather than forcing the upper end.
Bay Parkway out-and-back — approximately miles 21–28 and 49–56	Expect exposure and changes in wind angle. Use roughly 220–245 W according to conditions. Give the turnaround, other athletes, and any strong crosswind your attention. On the final pass, choose the effort that will let you run well.

These are working ranges, not numbers to hit every second. A gust, a turn, or a necessary change in position may interrupt them. Return smoothly to the appropriate effort; do not surge to repair an average.

Into the wind: Accept a slower speed. If riding 235 W becomes a handling task or feels materially harder than it should, 225–230 W can be the right decision. Keep your position stable and give yourself room around other riders.

With the wind: Let the bike move. You can bring power back toward the upper part of the range when it feels inexpensive. If you are already moving quickly, staying aero and riding smoothly may be more useful than pressing for another 5–10 W.

Lap 2 check: Ask whether the same output still comes at a reasonable HR and perceived effort. Western Mass and TOUGH Man, both, included a successful bike-to-run transition; protect that relationship here. If HR and effort are both climbing while output becomes harder to hold, move down the range. If you are stable, continue riding your race.

The closed, two-lap course may be busy, especially near turns and the lap split. You know how to ride in wind; give handling the attention it deserves without making it the story of your day.

Official 2026 bike elevation profile · two laps · 756 ft of gain.

T2

Let the final bike miles prepare you to run. Keep fueling on schedule, release any unnecessary pressure, and arrive in transition with a clear first-mile plan. There is no need to judge the ride by its elapsed time.

Run | Power first, pace second

On this flat, exposed two-lap course, the wind may make the pace for a given output look unfamiliar. Let it.

Official 2026 IRONMAN 70.3 New York run course map, athlete guide page 46 — Official 2026 athlete guide, page 46 · Open full-size run map. The guide map controls if race routing changes.

Course section	Working power and decision
T2, tunnel, and boardwalk entry — approximately mile 0–1	Start around 275–290 W. Establish your stride and breathing before deciding how the day feels. Do not let an easy early pace pull you above your chosen effort.
First westbound trip — approximately miles 1–4.5	Progress toward 290–305 W if it feels sustainable. Allow pace to move with the wind; keep the effort controlled.
First return and lap split — approximately miles 4.5–7	Reassess at the bathhouse loop, tunnel, and lap split. Compare power with breathing, stride, HR, and the cost of holding it. Stay near 285–305 W if that relationship is sound.
Second outbound — approximately miles 7–10.2	Hold roughly 285–305 W if the first lap was controlled. Choose the lower end if wind or fatigue has made the same output more expensive.
Final return — approximately miles 10.2–13.1	If you are running well, you have permission to move toward 300–310 W or above and race what remains. If you are working hard simply to maintain form, hold the strongest sustainable rhythm instead.

All mile boundaries are approximate. The boardwalk, turns, aid stations, tunnel, and bathhouse loop will break up your rhythm briefly; settle back in after each one.

Your 156 bpm at Western Mass is a useful comparison, not a number you must reproduce or a ceiling you must obey. Look at the relationship among power, HR, breathing, and stride. If pace falls into the wind while those measures remain sound, nothing needs fixing. If holding the same power starts to cost much more, adjust.

You are generally patient. Use that strength through the first lap. Think of what you did in the second lap of Western Mass. That is where you punctuated the race. The time to press is when the second lap tells you that you can, especially on the final return.

Official 2026 run elevation profile · two laps · 65 ft of gain.

Fueling in the rain and wind

Your fueling system works. Follow it.

The risk on Saturday is losing track of intake while concentrating on weather, traffic, and handling. Keep your normal carbohydrate schedule visible and deliberate. Check it at planned intervals rather than waiting until you feel behind. If the cool conditions reduce how much fluid you need, maintain the same carbohydrate intake through the products and amounts you normally use. This is non-negotiable! I’ll say it again. If the cool conditions reduce how much fluid you need, maintain the same carbohydrate intake.

Take feeds when the bike is stable and you have space. A missed opportunity at a turn is a cue to take the feed at the next safe moment, not to abandon the schedule. Carry that same focus onto the run.

Race-day decision rules

If the swim feels overwhelming: Ease the effort, find one clear sighting point, and restore your breathing. Build only after you are comfortable.
If bike speed is disappointing into the wind: Check power, HR, perceived effort, and handling. If those are appropriate, continue. Do not chase the speed.
If the bike’s upper range starts costing too much: Move down 5–10 W or more as needed. A range gives you choices; it is not a test of toughness.
If the tailwind makes riding feel easy: Let power return naturally, but do not force watts simply to balance the headwind section.
If run pace looks slow at appropriate STRYD power: Trust the effort and the conditions. Reassess at the lap split, not after every gust.
If the second run lap feels strong: Increase pressure progressively and commit on the final return.
If conditions disrupt your routine: Reestablish fueling first, then return your attention to execution.

Quick-reference race card

Moment	Your cue
Swim start	Easy first. Find breathing and sighting. Build when comfortable.
Bike headwind / gradual rise	Generally 225–240 W, selected by handling, HR, and feel. Let speed be slow.
Bike southbound	Return toward 230–245 W when comfortable; release pressure as speed rises.
Bike Lap 2	Is the same power still costing the same? Protect the run if it is not.
Run mile 1	275–290 W. Settle before building.
Run first lap	Generally 290–305 W. Judge effort, not pace.
Run second lap	285–305 W if stable; press beyond that late if you have earned it.
All day	Same carbohydrate plan. Fluid according to conditions.

You do not need normal-condition splits to have a strong race. Get comfortable before you build in the swim. Make calm, repeatable decisions on the bike. Then use the run you have already shown you can deliver.